The Journal of China Universities of Posts and Telecommunications ›› 2023, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 82-88.doi: 10.19682/j.cnki.1005-8885.2023.1013

Special Issue: 复杂网络传播与网络控制

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Behavioral finance between the spot and futures markets based on multilayer network

Zhang Sicong, Dai Jianzhuo, Huang Wenjing, Mi Xinping   

  1. 1. Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co. , Ltd. , Nanjing 210013, China
    2. Jiangsu Anfang Electric Power Technology Co. , Ltd. , Taizhou 225300, China
  • Received:2023-07-11 Revised:2023-10-04 Online:2023-12-28 Published:2023-12-28
  • Contact: Huang Wenjing
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Science and Technology Foundation of State Grid Corporation of China ( SGCC ) (J2022116).

Abstract: In order to study the financial behavior of investors in the spot market, the transmission process of futures prices to spot prices is analyzed. Firstly, a coarse-graining method is proposed to construct a dual-layer coupled complex network of spot price and futures price. Then, to characterize the financial behavior of investors in the spot market, a price coupling strength indicator is introduced to capture investors' overreaction and underreaction behavior. The simulation results show that, despite the focus of researchers on arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets, investors in the spot market will not overreact or delay when the acceptance level of price fluctuations remains unchanged. On the contrary, when the stable coefficient of the price difference between the futures and spot markets remains unchanged, investors undergo a nonlinear process of overreaction followed by underreaction as their acceptance level of price fluctuations increases.

Key words: multilayer network, spot market, futures market