Abstract: The network attack profit graph (NAPG) model and the attack profit path predication algorithm are presented herein to cover the shortage of considerations in attacker-s subjective factors based on existing network attack path prediction methods. Firstly, the attack profit is introduced, with the attack profit matrix designed and the attack profit matrix generation algorithm given accordingly. Secondly, a path profit feasibility analysis algorithm is proposed to analyze the network feasibility of realizing profit of attack path. Finally, an opportunity profit path and an optimal profit path are introduced with the selection algorithm and the prediction algorithm designed for accurate prediction of the path. According to the experimental test, the network attack profit path predication algorithm is applicable for accurate prediction of the opportunity profit path and the optimal profit path.

Key words: network attack graph technology, attack profit, profit matrix, attack profit rate, network path prediction